Is it the Trump-Clinton syndrome or genuine love?
After Erdogan’s more than 20 years of being in power, Turkey is choosing its future in democracy.
On Sunday, Turkey went to vote to elect a president and parliamentary. Along with Erdogan, the leader of the biggest opposition party Kilicdaroglu from CHP, and Ince from Memleket Party who withdrew his candidacy 48 hours before the elections, were nominees. On the other hand, Turkey saw a new face Sinan Ogan, who ATA alliance’s candidate.
Neither Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his main rival looked to have secured the 50% of votes to win elections.
Although the presidential election did not result in a first-round victory, Erdogan led the election with 49.52% of the votes, which was 2.07 points lower than his previous result in the 2018 presidential election. The biggest opposition leader, Kilicdaroglu, achieved 44.88%, which is a historic success for a leftist leader. The results came as a surprise to the Turkish people, as many online surveys had predicted different outcomes.
Erdogan has been ruling the country for more than 20 years, and this election was seen as a pivotal moment for Turkey’s future. The country had the choice to move towards a new era or persist with Erdogan’s leadership.
Erdogan’s leadership has been marked by several domestic and international setbacks in recent years. These include Turkey’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention on domestic violence, a diplomatic crisis with the US over the F-16 jets, strained relations with the Biden administration, the ongoing prosecution of Halk Bank, controversial Syrian migration policies, and the high death toll in the aftermath of the February earthquake, which was partly attributed to Erdogan’s “zoning peace” policy that allowed builders to bypass safety regulations.
Additionally, Erdogan’s party and his political positions have significantly shifted from the centre-right to the extreme-right, as demonstrated by his alignment with HUDA-PAR, an official party of Hezbollah which is officially recognized as a terrorist organization in Turkey.
On the other hand, Kilicdaroglu has faced criticism for his controversial stance on headscarves and his perceived lack of political strength, given that he is a leader of Ataturk’s party. He has also faced backlash for his previous unsuccessful attempts at running for the presidency against Erdogan. Prior to his official candidacy, many people took to Twitter to express their opposition to Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, using the hashtag “Kilicdaroglu shouldn’t be a candidate” (Kilicdaroglu aday olmasin). There were two other potential candidates for CHP after Kilicdaroglu: Mansur Yavas, the head of the Ankara Municipality, and Ekrem Imamoglu, the head of the Istanbul Municipality. Both of them successfully challenged AKP’s authority in the two major cities after 15 years of AKP rule.
Many people agree that Imamoglu would have been an exceptional candidate among the potential nominees, given his youth and success as mayor of Istanbul Municipality and Beylikduzu. However, the people’s dissatisfaction with Kilicdaroglu was overlooked, and the CHP decided to nominate Kilicdaroglu despite the opposition’s repeated objections to his suitability for the role.
Muharrem Ince, the leader of the Memleket Party and former presidential candidate for the CHP in 2018, is notorious for letting down opposition voters after conceding defeat in the 2018 election with his infamous statement “The man won.” Just 48 hours before the election on Sunday, he withdrew his candidacy, stating “If Kilicdaroglu loses the election, they will blame me, so I am dropping out.” Interestingly, 236.097 people still voted for him on election day.
Surprising Outcome from the Quake Tragedy
After the devastating earthquakes that hit Turkey in February, thousands of people lost their lives under the rubble. Critics of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan argued that his government’s repeated amnesties for illegal buildings, which he called “zoning peace,” allowed builders to bypass crucial safety regulations. Millions of buildings were certified this way, leading to widespread criticism of Erdogan’s government.
Many of those who died during the earthquake perished from hypothermia, a lack of rescue crews, and food and water shortages. Despite the tragedy, it was surprising that the city of Hatay, which was one of the most affected areas, voted for Erdogan’s party, AKP and its ally MHP, with 48.84% of the vote.
Turkey has undoubtedly faced numerous challenges and setbacks in its political landscape. Were the candidates so insufficient that the voters were “frustrated” and “disgusted” and had no choice but to settle for the lesser of two evils, as we witnessed in the US election in 2016? Or does the majority of Turkish people’s love for Erdogan overshadow everything else?
It remains to be seen where the majority of Sinan Ogan’s supporters, who received 5.17% of the vote, will lean in the upcoming runoff election. Will they throw their support behind Kilicdaroglu, who needs more than 4 points, or will they slightly favour Erdogan, who only needs less than 1 point? The answer to this question will likely determine who will emerge as the ultimate winner in the next two weeks.
